Microsoft: Refrigerators, not now - IoT Basics, yes please

Microsoft and Liebherr announced yesterday they are collaborating on a new "SmartDeviceBox" that allows the kitchen appliance to remind people what they need at the market, Microsoft principal data scientist TJ Hazen said in a blog post.

Fir now, let's not make jokes about your refrigerators updating at bad times or having blue screen of death episodes.

Rather, let's connect this announcement with an article that was published by former Apple executive Jean-Louis Gassée (link here). Most Internet of Things watchers are very skeptical right now. With some companies discontinuing the services behind their products and support often horrible, the consumer space has been very mixed. And some of the ideas are just not well thought out.

Gassée states 'The IoT randomly works. Devices stop and restart, they require visits to unsupportive customer support pages and helpless Your Call Is Important To U.S. help lines (and now we have chatbots). If you think I exaggerate, google “Nest trouble” or “smart bulbs trouble”.... Companies buy the cheapest possible processor, grab some software from the open source shelves, throw on a skimpy UI, hastily assemble and test, ship it.' Then he states "After a device has made it to the market, the real fun begins. Software updates are a problem when your connected lock or your connected car is in the middle of an update and you need to get in the house or drive to the emergency room."

If you look at my favorite vantage point, security, on that topic Gassée writes "Then there’s the truly ugly side of Consumer IoT: security, or the lack of it. The lackadaisical, to be polite, approach to software leaves many connections open to hackers who can see passwords exchanged in clear text on home WiFi while they sit in a car parked outside the house. Or we see that 100M Volkswagen cars are open to wireless hacking."

Then let's look at standards.

On Twitter, Alasdair Allan (@aallan) states: The #iot has 3 problems; security, refresh cycle, and standards. Of these standards least important, but only one the Valley cares about.

Companies don't often want cross-company standards. The classic "if we build our own ecosystem, we can keep people buying only our products" (examples: Nest, Apple).

Ok, so much for the doom & gloom (for now).

Getting back to Microsoft. They are jumping on refrigerators and cars and what not. But this is the perfect opportunity for Microsoft or whomever to be a pivotal group in spurring the Internet of Things. How? Make it easier for people. Connecting IoT devices to the home and talking to each other is currently hard. Microsoft knows this space, they can make it easier for us. Take Windows 10 IoT and double the staff and tie them into your research group.  Make It Simple is the goal.

I never want to have to reboot my GE smart bulb, certainly not having to do this manually, that is not asking too much. If Microsoft got IoT basics right, it wouldn't matter if company X did a great Kickstarter, then 2 years later went out of business - if we had common basis, things would still work in a standard way which communicates in a way that is easy to use (thanks to Microsoft or whomever heeds this).

A starting point. Integrate the DynDNS type service in. Microsoft did it for Windows Home Server, they know how.  Bake it in. Keep building in the simple, positive steps.

We didn't go to the moon on the first launch. Microsoft and others, ensure you build a standards compliant base which includes security and intercompatibility, for IoT to grow on.

In the Windows 10 Era: Microsoft Wins, Intel and AMD Vie for Scraps

For the last 25 years, there has been a dominance in the computer industry: WINTEL, a nickname for the Microsoft & Intel dominance.  It has varied over the years - AMD rose up to challenge Intel, Microsoft has had challenges including government charges and Apple.

How did they do it: Microsoft built Windows versions which used more system resources.  Intel would build processors (and chipsets, and other items) that would be more powerful to meet Windows' demands.  With special catering to business and enthusiasts, this teaming provided growth and revenue for both companies year after year.  Governments investigated various times when dominance was against consumer rights but generally the progress was steady.

The entire mountain is now in collapse.  Let's look at things:

Software

After the failure that was Windows Vista, corporate clients have stuck with Windows XP basically until the bitter end.  This has reduced Microsoft's income from sales of operating systems.  Windows 7 has been adopted by many but corporations have trimmed IT budgets to the point where what IT staff have been left have not wanted to move their constituency off XP and Windows Server 2003.  This late switching costs Microsoft revenue.  

Microsoft has also attacked windmills left and right - Lotus, dBase, Wordperfect, Google, Apple, many more over the years - whenever they foresaw a threat, they would try to outdo the threat through skill or maneuvering, always using up valuable resources (usually to little end for the consumers).

Most shops shifting off Windows XP have chosen Windows 7, lowering revenue and compatibility of the current Windows 8 frontline system.

Hardware

The confluence of several issues:

1) With the lag in software sales, the amount of new hardware being purchase has slowed, with chip sales in a huge slump.

2) The tablet market slowed sales of traditional desktop and laptops significantly.  Intel has been late to the low power mobile space with cool, efficient, powerful chips.

Intel has hoped to keep the high end computing market going, especially as new servers are required.  But Intel has had problems with their 14nm chip fabrication, needed to reduce chip power and size (size = more chips per wafer, making more money).  Intel's process tick-tock release schedule (improvements, then shrink in size, then more improvements, etc., is seriously stalled with newer chips not on a new process or with significant hardware improvements.  Some say the hardware improvements have actually been stagnant since 2011.  Intel's withheld 6 core and higher core chips from affordable consumers.

Hardware's Downfall: Windows 10

With Steve Ballmer gone, Microsoft's new CEO is trying to save the company in the face of the above scenario coupled with threats from Apple and cloud computing.  Windows 10 upgrades for many for free will be a huge boon to capturing customers.  And Windows 10 can run on some hardware that is 8 to 10 years old, breathing life into hardware already paid for.

Few people will now be buying many new Intel (or AMD) chips just to run Windows 10 like they might have for new versions of Windows in the past.  Why when it runs well on current and past hardware?    Intel and AMD stock has tanked and Intel has lost some key management.

The key is to watch what companies may do - stay on Windows 7 until end of life or adopt Windows 10.  Microsoft must include features in the OS worth upgrading to - both for home and office users.  Do not do it through past trickery, but do it through winning over customers with superior product & service.  Focus on your core and that's what they've done this month.

Hardware - a Possible Path

Intel must cut hardware costs.  They have a very high margin for current chips.  If new fabrication plants will be spun up slower, funnel the money into cheaper chips, fueling savings and making stock holders see Intel is not down & out.  Also allow for cheaper 6 core chips (about $350) and 8 core chips ($499).  They are in your servers, allow them on the desktop.

If Intel cannot move hardware down a bit, then perhaps AMD can move in in the budget space.  But they'd better look to advertise how well their chips run Windows 10.

Where do you see the market?